A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
